Prediction: 1 in 10 Vehicles Will Self-Drive by 2030
Feb. 6, 2020—There's no shortage of prognostications about the future of a rapidly changing automotive industry. The latest comes from European data organization Statista, which predicts that one in 10 vehicles by 2030 will be self-driving.
In a press release, Statista laid out the case that big investments already present in the AV arena signal the coming prevalence of self-driving vehicles on roadways. Some $27.5 billion of startup funding went into AV technologies in 2018 alone, according to the report. General Motors' Cruise led the way.
The transition also depends on advances in security and consumer favor.
"Clearly, the market growth depends on the speed of consumer acceptance and the manufacturers’ ability to scale up production," according to Statista's press release.
Statista expects the business output of automated vehicles to be big as well, amounting to trillions of dollars. The report predicts that robo-taxi services will lead the way, more than doubling the next-biggest segment of monetizing riders' time in driverless vehicles.
Statista also touched on ADAS, which is the precursor technology for AVs and is already in the market today. The report expects Advanced Driver Assistance Systems demand to increase a lot over the next five years, becoming more than six times its current market size. Radar and LiDar technologies will lead the way, the report says.
For more background on the current state of these technologies, check out:
- The Importance of Understanding Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems
- 2020 Brings New LiDAR Sensors
- Timeline: Milestones in ADAS Before 2010